Institute For Integrated Economic Research-Australia
IIER- Publications
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The Australian Healthcare System -
‘just in time’ or ‘just in case’?
The Coronavirus pandemic has exposed a global lack of resilience as a result of a collective failure to assess and act on national risks and vulnerabilities in the face of a rapidly changing world. Australians have reacted very well to the pandemic; but were we adequately prepared for this or a range of other significant risks that have either already manifested or could still eventuate?
The pandemic has brought into sharp relief the inadequacies of Australia’s healthcare system in the broadest sense. The professionalism of our health practitioners has been extraordinary; however, the problem does not lie with them. Rather the ‘health system’ has been found wanting. The “just in time” free market philosophy may have resulted in cost efficiencies, but it has also resulted in significant erosion of healthcare systems resilience as our nation gradually lost manufacturing capacity to the point where we now import more than 90% of our medicines and virtually all of our Personal Protective Equipment, whilst at the same time having no stockholding mandates. Lower cost can come at a very high price in a crisis.
Our politicians have rightly applauded our nation’s health workers outstanding performance and dedication to their duties throughout the pandemic. However, plaudits are not enough. We, as a society, owe it to our healthcare professionals to do whatever it takes to enable and empower them to do their jobs, to ensure our healthcare system is genuinely resilient. The health and wellbeing of all Australians, and therefore the security of our nation, depend on it.
Smart Sovereignty & Trusted Supply Chains - A National Sovereignty / Resilience Imperative.
We had the opportunity to present the attached brief to the Australian Joint Parliamentary Committee for Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade on 22 April 2020. Key points included:
The Coronavirus pandemic has exposed a global lack of resilience as a result of a collective failure to assess and act on national risks and vulnerabilities in the face of a rapidly changing world.
Global trade and diverse supply chains are essential and will remain the predominant model into the future. However, we need to redesign critical components of our supply chains using the “Smart Sovereignty” model described in the brief.
The complement to Smart Sovereignty is “Trusted Supply Chains.” Where we depend on global trade imports, we must have diverse and transparent supply chains and have the ability to verify them.
Shortages of personal protective equipment, medical devices, and medicines – what’s happening in Australia?
The COVID-19 pandemic has seen a significant increase in public discussion about medical supply chains in general, and Australia’s exposure to shortages of critical medical items because we are at the end of a long and complex global supply network.
The Australian National Strategic Stockpile of medicines and personal protective equipment (referred to as PPE) has also been in the headlines. Unfortunately, the shortages of critical PPE for frontline healthcare workers would suggest that the National Strategic Stockpile is falling well short of the need …
The scrambling by the Government, and indeed a number of not-for-profits, to procure PPE (especially masks) from whoever and wherever they can, should be a lesson for those responsible for the future stocking of the stockpile.
What could Australia do differently to be ready when, not if, the next pandemic strikes? And it is very unlikely we will be waiting 50 or 100 years for it to occur. As the financial advisors say - past performance is not a guarantee of future results ...
AUSTRALIA’S MEDICINE SUPPLY
- is our Health a National Security / Resilience Issue ?
Australia imports over 90% of medicines and is at the end of a very long global supply chain making the nation vulnerable to supply chain disruptions. The TGA has acknowledged these supply chain risks when they report that at times there may not be enough of a specific medicine in the Australian marketplace, leading to potential weaknesses in supply.
Australia is particularly vulnerable to medicine shortages arising from factors outside our control. These factors can include manufacturing problems, difficulties in procurement, political instability, pandemics, another global economic crisis and a range of natural disasters. The current Coronavirus emergency is an example of this.
MARITIME TRADE DEPENDENCIES AND RISKS
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A National Security Issue
At the heart of a National Security Strategy, there should be a Maritime Trade Strategy. Today, in Australia, neither exist. This Article summarises the presentation made to the Australian Naval Institute Goldrick Seminar in Oct 19. It discusses some of the issues that could be considered in such a risk assessment. These include intentional interruption of trade, collateral damage from events such as an economic crisis leading to a failure of credit, natural disasters and climate change and PANDEMICS. Who would have thought ?
Australia’s Economic Security: Is there a problem?
What is the risk for our National Security and Defence Capability?
Published in the Australian Defence Magazine, February 2019.
Financial and economic indicators that signal the start of a downturn are evident in advanced economies. Australia is at particular risk with households currently the second most indebted in the world and with a total private sector debt ratio of 205% of GDP. We are facing a serious economic security challenge; however, most Australians (including many of our politicians) do not appear to appreciate that economic security is the foundation of our national security.
We cannot rely on past economic performance and assume that we will have the resilience to address the significant economic risks in the decade ahead. Australians need to face an unpleasant reality and take appropriate action. We need a National Security Strategy that integrates all aspects of national power. An economic security plan should be an integral part of such a strategy.
Energy Security - Is there a problem?
Published in the Australian Defence Magazine, September 2018.
Unfortunately the topic of energy has become so politicised, both between the major parties and within the Liberal party, that the national interest has been subsumed by both party and personal interests. The reality is that energy security, like national security, can only be addressed with consistent bipartisan political support.
Whilst Australia is endowed with natural resources, energy security risks across several sectors have increased. Despite this, the Government does not seem to think we have a problem. Unfortunately, energy security is about much more than just a more “reliable” and cheaper electricity supply. It is about our security as a nation, it is about protecting our society and our way of life and, as such, it is a very complex issue.
There are are significant issues with our energy systems that should concern us all; unfortunately, the analysis of our energy security and resilience is inadequate and the management of energy security has been outsourced to the market. The idea that we are at peace and “business as usual” is the appropriate model where the markets can manage all aspects of our critical infrastructure and supply chains is clearly out of date.
Energy security is a vital component of national security and an increased level of Government control / leadership with respect to energy security is warranted. The discussion of these issues is not just for our politicians; it is our collective responsibility to discuss these issues and to tell our politicians what we need to have done and not wait to just complain after our energy systems fail. We need a National Security Strategy that integrates all aspects of national power. An energy security plan should be an integral part of such a strategy.
Are our Assumptions about Climate Change and Environmental Degradation a risk to National Security?
Today we are confronted by global environmental degradation and climate change, occurring at an unprecedented scale and speed; with cascading and ramifying risks transferred to infrastructure, energy systems and the global economy. At this scale climate change impacts at every level of our military and national security systems. Yet, while the interlinking of climate and environment with national security is recognised, it is still seen as a driver that attracts only secondary or tertiary importance. This article is the third of the opening series by the Institute of Integrated Economics Research (IIER) - Australia, and completes the trilogy of economics, energy and environment framed within a national security perspective.
This article was published in the June 2019 issue of the Australian Defence Magazine
The Gray Zone is Not Just an Away Game: We Are In Risk of “Losing Without Fighting”
Dr Robbin Laird’s interview of John Blackburn, Defense.info on 17 November 2019
Whilst many Defence writers proclaim the aim of “winning without fighting,” we are much more likely to end up “losing without fighting” if we do not get serious about our supply chain vulnerabilities and related issues.
The critical issue that Australians need to consider is what components of critical supply chains are owned or controlled by authoritarian powers. This clearly means that there is a need for a much broader security concept than simply preparing for high end kinetic warfare or engaging at distance from our nations in “gray zone areas.”
Trade and manufacturing vulnerabilities in our societies are reshaping the liberal democracies to be the “gray zones” when it comes to being vulnerable to deliberate disruptions in times of crisis.
We need to stop congratulating ourselves for acquiring the latest 5th Gen platform and understand that our security cannot be guaranteed merely by pledging to expend 2% of our GDP on Defence. We need a comprehensive National Security Strategy that acknowledges the world has changes.
Re-Thinking Australia’s National Security Strategy – Lessons from the 1930s for the 2030s
Anne Borzycki’s article published in Defense.info on 4 December 2019
During the 1920s the rise of Japan was preoccupying the national security discussions within the Australian Government. What role would Britain play in the Asia-Pacific region? Interestingly, these same issues and challenges are being discussed today in Australia: simply replace China for Japan, and the US for Britain.
By the 1930s the situation in Europe, and events unfolding in Asia (particularly Japan’s seizure of Manchuria), triggered a step-up in the rhetoric and policy considerations about Australia’s national security. The public debate involved not only the political leadership of the time, but intellectuals and businessmen.
A notable businessman of the era who contributed significantly to Australia’s capacity to prepare for the coming conflict was Essington Lewis, the managing director of BHP. He urged the government and industry to prepare for war and he also took action himself: establishing large stockpiles of raw materials, co-founding the Commonwealth Aircraft Corporation and establishing munitions annexes at the steelworks. How many business leaders today would have the foresight of Lewis and then take the lead in driving a national security agenda?
It is unfortunate that the whole-of-government approach so effectively employed during the Second World War, is not a feature of Australian government planning in 2019. How can the Australian government understand and manage the interconnected elements of national security (for example the economy, infrastructure, industry, maritime trade, energy, environment, defence) without a whole-of-government approach?
This whole-of-government approach should be integrated under a national security strategy.
National Hydrogen Strategy Discussion Paper Response
This paper was submitted by the IIER-Australia in response to the invitation to respond to the COAG energy Council National Hydrogen Strategy Discussion Paper in April 2019. It concludes that Hydrogen can contribute to Australia’s national security by providing an alternative energy source that is domestically generated, Australian-owned, economically beneficial, environmentally sound if supported by policy that takes energy security seriously.
Developing the policies to deliver the National Hydrogen Strategy must occur within the framework of national security and be implemented under an integrated system level design.